Author: ISP Admin

This week ISP-Myanmar presents another review in our series on emerging new generation leaders from Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs) and the Spring Revolution movement, framed under the theme “The Rise of Princelings.”

This week’s ISP Insight Email revisits “Naypyitawlogy” by examining the administrative restructuring of the State Administration Council (SAC) during its three-year reign. In literature of political science, scholars often study the relationship between an authoritarian regime’s stability and state capacity.

When a nation collectively chooses the path of securitization and militarization,
it inevitably incurs an opportunity cost in the development and productivity
of the nation impeding for generations to come.

This week focuses on the generational shift, “The Rise of Princelings.” The emergence of young faces during the latest Kokang (MNDAA) and United Wa State Party (UWSP) meeting was significant. There was a rarely seen female figure in the leadership meeting.

Following the Operation 1027, clashes have resumed in Rakhine State, where the Arakan Army (AA) has seized control of at least 162 SAC military outposts. Significantly, nearly 40 of these SAC outposts were secured by the AA, following SAC forces’ withdrawal from their positions.

The Three Brotherhood Alliance (3BHA) and allied forces launched the Operation 1027 on October 27, 2023, and seized Laukkai, the target of the operation, on January 4, 2024. In addition, they have also seized four border gates – Chinshwehaw, Monekoe, Pang Hseng and Kyinsankyawt.

The maps below depict territories controlled by the Palaung State Liberation Organization/Army
(PSLO/PSLA) and the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) during specific time periods. Ta’ang (Palaung) armed insurgencies started in 1963.

Under the overarching theme of “Naypyitawlogy,” ISP-Myanmar analyzed the nature of a closed dictatorship, drawing parallels to how international political experts assess developments in such systems.

To assess the impacts of conflict in these areas, we employed the public service provision index, alongside the security index and humanitarian crisis index.

To assess the impacts of conflict in these areas, we employed the humanitarian crisis index, which is measured by the number of IDPs per township, alongside the security index and public service provision index.

To assess the impacts of conflict in these areas, we employed the security index alongside the humanitarian crisis index and public service provision index.

Chin State and Tanintharyi Region experienced armed conflicts in all of their townships while in Sagaing and Mandalay Regions, conflicts erupted in 34 out of 37 and 25 out of 28 townships respectively.

In the transition to the new year of 2024, ISP-Myanmar will present this Insight Email as a ‘year-end special report’ rather than its regular format. We will briefly look back at what happened in Myanmar in the domains of (1) politics, (2) the economy, (3) China–Myanmar relations, (4) the socio-economic situation, and (5) the climate crisis.

ISP is excited to showcase the top ten pieces that captivated our readers this year! Leading the list is none other than the OnPoint analysis on ‘Operation 1027.’ The remaining gems include ISP Mappings on Conflict, Peace and Security, and China Studies, along with Insight Emails delving into the military succession crisis and armed conflict in the Northern Shan State. Explore these engaging pieces through the links below!

Since the launch of ‘Operation 1027,’ the Three Brotherhood Alliance (3BHA) has captured territories in northern Shan State where several of China’s projects are located. According to ISP-Myanmar’s data up until December 27, the 3BHA now exercise full control over six project locations as well as partial control over further seven project locations.