Author: ISP Admin

This week’s ISP Insight Email focuses on the consecration event of the world’s highest marble Buddha Stupa, Maravijaya, which main sponsor is the SAC’s leader, the stupa’s relationship with the junta’s superstitious lucky number ‘nine’. We also present the change of the financial control by the SAC’s Central Bank over export earnings – forcing the conversion of Myanmar Kyat from a ratio of 65:35 to 50:50. However, the policy may have little impact and currently, the state of Myanmar’s economy is alarming for both consumers and producers.

The World Bank’s report argued that economic activity has been slowly increasing in Myanmar, with a three percent GDP growth rate in 2023. The report also suggested that Myanmar’s economy was in ‘a fragile recovery’, with a long way back to return pre-Covid pandemic levels of economic activity.

Thailand’s Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister, Don Pramudwinai, recently disclosed that he met with Myanmar’s former leader Aung San Suu Kyi in detention in Naypyitaw on July 9, 2023. The meeting came just two days before the ASEAN Foreign Ministers Meeting in Jakarta and was the first allowed in the two years following the military coup in February 2021.

This ISP Explainer No. 4 centers on recent developments in China-Myanmar relations based on ISP-Myanmar’s timelines of notable events. One major event of concern is that of a convoy of Chinese officials who were shot while traveling along the Sadon-Kanpiketi Highway at a time when State Administration Council (SAC) forces had renewed their offensive against the Kachin Independence Army (KIA).

After one year since the coup, the conflict has declined by 50% near Chinese projects in Myanmar. This week’s ISP Clip No. (60) presents a fact-based analysis of issues related to foreign investments in Myanmar.

This week’s ISP-Myanmar Insight Email No.18 highlights the World Bank’s Burma Economic Monitor and the fragile status of Myanmar’s economy. We also present the probability of conflict resurfacing in Kachin State along key routes for the military and border trade purposes, and the fighting in the border town of Mese, Kayah State, highlighting a switching of allegiances of the Karenni Border Guard Forces (BGF) against the junta.

Many local communities in Kachin State have opposed the mining developments as those could impact the local environment and locals’ livelihoods. But mining interests have not stopped and are, rather, incessantly advancing.

Within a span of two years between the coup and May 31, 2023, at least 2,248 clashes occurred in 61 townships where China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC) projects are set to be implemented or where other Chinese projects are already underway.

In the first five months of 2023, the number of civilian deaths reached a record high, with at least 748 individuals losing their lives in clashes. This week’s ISP Clip No. (58) presents a fact-based analysis of civilian deaths in post-coup conflicts.

This week’s ISP Insight Email focuses on the informal meeting on Myanmar in Pattaya, organized by the Thai caretaker government. Readers will also find a discussion of the possibility that SAC officials held a secret meeting with Daw Aung San Suu Kyi amid the ongoing concern that the media information space is becoming ever more conducive to rumors, fake news, misinformation, and disinformation.

The first ‘Sagaing Forum’, an event orchestrated by 30 armed groups from Sagaing Region, was held on May 30-31, 2023. This week’s ISP Clip No. (57) presents a fact-based analysis of this forum and conflict situation in Sagaing Region, Myanmar.

In the first five months of 2023, the number of civilian deaths reached a record high, with at least 748 individuals losing their lives in clashes. This figure accounts for nearly 60 percent of the total civilian casualties reported in the previous year. Since the coup, at least 8,640 civilians have been killed. Approximately 2,183 of these deaths were caused by gunshots inflicted by the State Administration Council (SAC), either during protests or while individuals were in SAC detention.

Within over two years since the coup, the energy sector has attracted the largest amount of foreign investment in Myanmar. This week’s ISP Clip No. (56) presents a fact-based analysis of issues related to foreign investments in Myanmar.

This week’s ISP Insight email focuses on the Mongla talks between the State Administration Council (SAC) and the Three Brotherhood Alliance. In addition, it discusses the importance of the Sagaing Forum in its attempt to formulate the long-term vision, as well as medium-term and short-term preparations for their anti-coup struggle in Sagaing Region where more than 300 armed resistance forces are active.

With its policy reset towards Myanmar, China is planning to revitalize its strategic economic plans in Myanmar. This week’s ISP Clip No. (55) presents a fact-based analysis of China’s policy change and its implications.